An earthquake similar to the one from September 5th, 2012 in Nicoya is what is expected for the South Pacific of the country, specifically in the fault that lies below the Peninsula of Burica and Osa.
This was explained by Marino Protti, a seismologist at the Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Costa Rica (OVSICORI), who has been conducting an investigation in the area for two years, which follows the same parameters of the work carried out in Guanacaste.
The specialist concluded that, due to the historical behavior of the land and the preliminary results of the studies, an earthquake will occur in this area in three to 13 years, and the probability of having a magnitude of 7.2 to 7.4 is very high.
The earthquake has to occur. It is not a matter of whether or not it could occur. The issue of when it will occur is not what we are interested in, because we have no way to make that estimate. However, this is not the next earthquake in Costa Rica, another could occur in an area that is not under study,”
said the expert.
Given the location of the fault, the most critical affectation would occur in Burica, Osa, Paso Canoas, Ciudad Neily, Río Claro, Palmar Sur and Palmar Norte, but it will be felt in the entire country.
Protti also stressed that
it is not our intention to predict the earthquake, we cannot say when it will happen, but we can anticipate it similar to what we did in Nicoya. There could be another earthquake before and in another area.”
Every 40 years, the southern region of the country, just where the Coco plate is getting under the Panama Plate, has had very strong earthquakes, between 7.2 and 7.4. The last one was in 1983, so there is a lot of energy accumulated over the last 30 years.
Regarding the population, the expert was clear that this is not an alert, but rather a call to be prepared to minimize the risks, as occurred with the Nicoya earthquake, and to organize an action and reaction plan.